Sustainable Production and Consumption, Volume 59 (2025)
Sustainable Production and Consumption
How much carbon can the Swiss building stock lock away if biobased materials become standard, and how far does that take the country towards net zero? A research team from ETH Zurich and HES-SO has modelled the residential stock to 2050 and beyond. It is one of the few quantified assessments of Swiss buildings as a long-term carbon reservoir.
Authors / institution
Yasmine Dominique Priore, Lucile Schulthess, Sarah Delmenico, Lionel Rinquet, Guillaume Habert, Thomas Jusselme · ETH Zurich · HES-SO (HEIA-FR, HEPIA)
Published
2025
The study uses a Python-based building stock model of Swiss residential buildings. It compares scenarios with a growing share of biobased materials in new construction and renovation against business as usual and against Switzerland's climate targets. At the end of life, the authors assume that all biogenic carbon is released again. Demolition rates therefore decide how long the carbon stays in the stock.
What the model shows
- Renovation takes the lead. New construction declines for demographic reasons. By 2050, renovations cause almost four times more embodied emissions than new buildings and become the main lever for both emissions and storage.
- New buildings store more per unit. Their ratio of biogenic carbon stored to emissions reaches 300 % by 2050, compared with 176 % for renovations.
- Storage approaches emissions. Around 2050, buildings could take up 2.5 Mt CO₂ of biogenic carbon per year, close to the stock's yearly embodied emissions.
- Material choice alone is not enough. Even in the most ambitious scenario, more biobased materials cut cumulative emissions by only 5–8 % compared with business as usual. Cleaner material production and less construction activity remain necessary.
- A large long-term reservoir. Over the long term, the stock could hold a maximum of 300–400 Mt CO₂. That is six times the cumulative net removals Switzerland expects to achieve by 2050.
The same team has since zoomed in on individual buildings. Potential contribution of biogenic materials in new and renovated buildings towards carbon budgets and storage in Switzerland
Full reference: Priore, Y. D., Schulthess, L., Delmenico, S., Rinquet, L., Habert, G., & Jusselme, T. (2025). Potential for biogenic carbon storage towards a net-zero built environment in Switzerland. Sustainable Production and Consumption, 59, 229–240.
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