Timber construction stocks through the tariff storm

Tariff risk for Canada

Since October 2024, uncertainty about the policies of the new US administration has driven volatility, first over inflation and higher construction costs, later over fears of a recession. According to Charrey, Canadian producers such as Western Forest Products, Interfor and Canfor generate roughly 20 to 36 percent of their revenue from exports to the US that are exposed to tariffs. Concerns about labour in US construction due to threatened deportations added to the pressure.

US timberland owners such as Weyerhaeuser, PotlatchDeltic and Rayonier initially benefited as lumber futures rose by 28 percent. In early April, the picture reversed with falling prices.

Construction activity has stabilised in some European countries.

Tailwind for Europe

Low valuations of European stocks, monetary easing by the ECB and the Riksbank and a stabilisation of construction at a low level have supported the European part of the index since the end of 2024. Charrey also welcomes Germany's EUR 500 billion package for infrastructure and climate, even though, for example, the EUR 100 billion for the climate and transformation fund will be spread over twelve years.

How Timber Carbon sees it

In the short term, tariffs and interest rates drive timber stock prices. In the long term, what matters is whether timber construction can capture the value of its climate performance. Timber Carbon, launched in 2026 as a spin-off of Timber Finance, quantifies, certifies and monetises the carbon removed in mass timber buildings as carbon removal credits on the voluntary carbon market. Learn more on our technology page.